Private Sector Warns: U.S. Tariffs Could Choke SME Exports, Fuel Inflation

The Belize Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) has raised alarms over the economic risks posed by President Donald Trump’s new tariff policy, warning that even without a formal dismantling of the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), the imposition of a 10% blanket tariff could undercut Belize’s access to its most important export market.

BCCI President Katherine Meighan emphasized that small and medium enterprises (SMEs)—which make up the backbone of Belize’s export sector—stand to be disproportionately affected. These firms, already navigating rising input costs and logistical constraints, could see their U.S.-bound products priced out of competitiveness if the preferential duty-free terms under the CBI are effectively sidelined.

Trump’s trade overhaul, announced this week, sets a baseline 10% tariff on all imports to the United States, regardless of pre-existing trade preferences or developmental exemptions. While the CBI has not been revoked, the blanket nature of the new tariff effectively disregards its provisions, threatening to neutralize the advantages that have long supported Belizean exports in sectors such as citrus, sugar, and processed food products.

The Belize Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade responded swiftly, stating that it is urgently analyzing the situation and will engage both U.S. counterparts and CARICOM partners to ensure Belize’s economic interests are protected. The Ministry’s release signals concern that the U.S. shift toward uniform tariffs, framed under the rhetoric of “reciprocity,” may undermine long-established trade partnerships and the special considerations historically extended to developing economies.

Economist Dr. Philip Castillo had anticipated this outcome in remarks last week, warning that Trump's reciprocal tariff strategy violates the spirit of WTO-endorsed special and differential treatment. Castillo cautioned that Belize’s trade and price stability would be jeopardized if the CBI’s preferential access was rendered moot by across-the-board levies.

The fallout could also be felt in the domestic market. Belize imports the majority of its goods—ranging from food to fuel to building materials—and inflationary spillovers from broader global tariffs are likely. The BCCI noted that any increase in import costs could cascade into higher prices for consumers, intensify wage demands, and strain business continuity for local enterprises.