Trump’s Victory: Implications for Belize

By Dr. Philip Castillo

To secure his electoral victory, Donald Trump made several promises but gave little indication how those will be achieved.  While there is always a gap between election promises and actual achievements, there is a broad consensus that some effort will be made to actualize what may be regarded as his signature commitments. The USA is Belize’s largest trading partner. It is the source of the majority of our tourists both cruise and overnight. The majority of international flights landing in Belize originate in the USA. Belize purchases virtually all of its petroleum from the USA and USA banks are the repository of the country’s foreign reserves. Given its economy is so intimately tied with the USA, Trump’s policies will impact Belize.

Mr. Trump repeatedly blamed immigrants as the major source of all of the ailments confronting the United States and he has promised mass deportation. Estimates regarding the number of undocumented immigrants in the US range as high as 11 million. It will be a legal and logistical  nightmare to engage in mass deportation without severe disruptions  in the economy. But even the threat of such deportation is likely to have an impact. Immigrants employed in rural agricultural sectors where they have high visibility, are likely to quit and relocate to urban areas, where it may be easier to mingle with existing populations.

To the extent that there is deportation and Belizeans are among those deported, Belize needs to be prepared for an untold number of its citizens who would be forcibly returned. It is possible that  some of these deportees have marginal connections with Belize and have lived most of their adult lives in the USA. In Belize, where the unemployment rate is 3%, Prime Minister Mr. John Briceño has said that deportation can increase Belize’s labour force. Deportation may also affect remittances. Data from the Central Bank show remittances for 2023 at US $149.7 M, its highest level ever.

Disruptions in the labour force will impact prices and fuel the very inflation that Mr. Trump claimed that he alone can tame. What will also be inflationary is his threat to levy tariffs  on foreign goods mainly from  China. Retaliatory tariffs will likely initiate a trade war.  As  an import dependent economy where our imports are at least three times more than our exports, and those exports also have a high import content, Belize’s economy will suffer collateral damage in any trade war between its two largest trading partners. When the elephants fight, as noted by the Kenyan proverb, it’s the  grass that gets trampled. 

Belizean sociologist Dr Melanie Smith, adjunct at Dalhousie University in Canada, authored an article entitled “Who’s Afraid of Donald Trump?”  A qualitative study interviewing Belizean irregular migrant women in the US, Dr Smith found that they have learnt to be invisible. “They have access to networks that allow them to function with precarious citizenship.”  Migrants from other countries are likely to have similar and even larger networks that they can tap into and remain invisible as long as they do not commit major crimes.

The root causes of migration to the USA are well known and without addressing these causes in meaningful cooperative relationships with the countries affected, irregular migration to the USA will continue, despite the known risks and notwithstanding any harsh rhetoric from the President Elect. Belize’s comparative stability and its porous borders remain attractive for migrants trekking north.  Belize is already being used as an in transit point by CARICOM nationals who have entry privileges. 

On foreign policy, it is no secret that successive Governments of Belize assume positions that are regarded a substantially pro-Palestinian, such that after the breakout of war in the Middle East, Belize took an even stronger position than its CARICOM colleagues and broke off diplomatic relations with Israel.  More so than his predecessors, Mr. Trump is an even stauncher supporter of Israel, which itself is a supporter of Guatemala. In a war that has dragged on for over a year and widened to involve other regional actors,  Belize may wish to reassess its position and align itself more to the CARICOM position,  where it can speak in a more amplified voice to possibly effect any required change.

Still on foreign policy , the victory of the Republicans especially in Florida – and the possible appointment of Senator Marco Rubio  as Secretary of State - will likely lead to a continuation of the embargo against Cuba. The island is currently experiencing major economic distress due to natural disasters coupled with the failure of its national electrical grid. Private initiatives in Belize are underway to assist Cuba. Expect likely increases in the number of Cuban medical professionals, who have become indispensable to Belize’s health system.  

Yet another way how Mr. Trump’s victory will impact Belize is via his commitment to cut environmental regulations and expand oil explorations. For this year only, Belize has had several climate related events including excessive rainfall and flooding, forest fires, drought, and near misses from hurricanes.  Should as expected, the USA reduces its environmental commitments, other large countries are likely to follow suit. Expect Belize and other members of the Small Island Developing States to bear the brunt of the negatives associated with a planet that is warming at an unparalleled rate.

Among the range of  other possible impacts of the Trump victory on Belize is what may be the outcome of  Mr. Elon Musk’s  application to the Public Utilities Commission to provide internet services to Belize. “No way”, says the Belize Communications Workers Union.  With Mr. Trump soon to be in the White House and his victory partly attributable to Mr. Musk’s money and efforts, what’s next? Quien sabe.

In response to Mr. Trump’s victory, the state of California, a known stronghold of the Democratic Party and home state of defeated candidate Kamala Harris,  is exploring options to “Trump-proof” its economy. Whatever that is and whatever that involves, to any extent possible, Belize may want to take note.

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