By Dr Philip Castillo
Taking all things into consideration, do you approve of the job that Dangriga Area Representative Dr Louis Zabaneh is doing? (%) That is the question a recent “Castillo Poll” asked the good folks of Dangriga.
The Poll also asked: “In your opinion, what are the most important issues that will determine how you vote in the upcoming General Elections later this year?” (Note that percentages exceed 100% due to multiple response options).
The positive approval rating for the Area Representative is no surprise. The poll had also asked respondents to rate the issues they regard as important determinants of their vote. Rating the second highest was jobs/employment at 64 percent. The most recent Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) labour force survey shows the unemployment rate in the country at marginally over 2 percent, its lowest level ever. SIB data does not disaggregate at the municipal level, so from its recent survey, it is not possible to ascertain the unemployment rate in Dangriga.
SIB does, however, disaggregate at the district level and the unemployment rate for the Stann Creek District is 1.8%, which is below the national average. Possible upcoming projects such as the proposed paving of the Commerce Bight (Jetty) road and the construction of a tourism village bode well for employment opportunities in the town. These developments were attributed to the Area Representative.
And should these projects come to fruition, they align well with the future developmental prospects in the town. Dangriga’s macro economy was once dependent on the citrus industry and the fact that its early inhabitants were small farmers and artisanal fisherfolk. The citrus industry has been in decline for years now and small farming is now dominated by its newer residents. Artisanal fishing is hardly viable.
Given its competitive advantages, Dangriga is well poised to benefit from the tourism industry, specifically the orange economy aspects of this industry. The orange economy focuses on the creative arts, music, arts and crafts and their ancillary activities. These include the music festivals, the arts and entertainment events, sale of crafts and local products.
Witness the two signature events in the “culture capital” recently...the 19th November celebrations and the Habinaha Wanaragua Competition. View the vast crowds in the town, marvel at the colourful tapestry of newly sewed uniforms, the renaissance of the dance camps...the orange economy component of the tourism industry – properly developed – will spread money in the town and among the beneficiaries will be women (who mostly sew the outfits) and youth (drummers dancers, singers etc.). Traditionally women and youth are among the most economically disadvantaged population subgroups.
There is a saying that a politician is at his highest level of support the very night when election results are announced. Thereafter, the realities of governing, the fiscal constraints that exist, and the inevitable demands of constituents present a yawning gap between campaign promises and achievable results. The table below regarding Dr Zabaneh’s support belies this point.
General Election night 2020 Dr Zabaneh won with marginally less than 62% of the vote. A few months later his approval rating fell ten percentage points to 51.2% and continued falling to 46%. It subsequently rose to 59% and has seemingly steadied at that level. What gives? Two explanations.
The first is that Castillo Polls generally focus on Likely Voters. To identify a likely voter, screening questions are asked to ascertain voter intentions. The most recent poll focused, not on Likely Voters but on Registered Voters. Since Dangriga nearly always has the lowest levels of voter turnout in any elections, there is likely to be a divergence between the perspectives of Registered vs Likely voters.
The next explanation is that Approval Rating is subjective but actual voting presents a binary choice. You can subjectively “approve “ of a politician and NOT vote for him/her and vice versa, you can “not approve” of a politician and vote for him/her. Why is that so? This is because Belize’s system of voting is not proportional representation but first past the post. Given the traditional weakness of third parties, your actual choices become binary - either PUP or UDP.
Focus on the ongoing schism within the Opposition UDP. Mr. Shyne Barrow is the constitutional leader of the Opposition UDP because he has garnered the votes of three of the five members of the parliamentary Opposition. That is unlikely to change and there is nothing that Mrs. Tracey Panton can do about that.
But based on the turnout at the recent October convention - despite its legal status - Mrs. Panton seemingly has a strong level of support among the rank and file UDP, and the majority of its constituency caretakers. And that is the crux of the dispute. Mr. Shyne is the official leader and Mrs. Panton is the “unofficial leader”. As official leader, Mr. Shyne has the legal authority to replace all of Mrs. Panton’s candidates, including Tracey herself. But not being the rank and file leader, Mr. Shyne would not have the coattails to drag his newly installed candidates anywhere near the finish line. Both leaders seem unwilling to budge. But who is budging are segments of their base voters.
For the independent voters given the aforementioned binary choices, a rational decision can easily be that the incumbent PUP is the best option. Though the survey did not ask political affiliation nor reasons to explain their approval or lack thereof of the Area Representative, some respondents openly indicated that they are UDP, and they do not approve of Dr Zabaneh.
Additionally, a smaller subset further revealed that due to the ongoing fighting in the national UDP leadership, they are likely to sit out the upcoming General Elections. This behavior, obviously, bodes well for Dr Zabaneh’s margin of victory. This poll estimates that between 2 – 3 percent of registered voters – who publicly regard themselves as UDP – say they intend to sit out the 2025 General Elections because they are dissatisfied with their political party but they will never vote PUP. This also begs the question, what percentage of UDP voters countrywide intend to not vote at all in the upcoming General Elections? It is also important to know where these base voters are located, since given Belize’s severely malapportioned constituencies, the impact of non-voters in competitive constituencies becomes substantially more influential.
I wish to reiterate that the approval rating poll was confined to Dangriga only and the country has 31 constituencies. But if what this poll found in Dangriga is any way representative of the thought processes of voters in the other constituencies? Then the prospect of a clean sweep… PUP win in all 31 constituencies becomes a distinct possibility. The country’s leading political analysts, notably Dr Dylan Vernon, are openly discussing this possibility and the constitutional implications thereof.
Decades ago, Dangriga’s most famous boxer George Swaso, upon being interviewed after his last fight at the Belize’s most famous boxing arena, Bird’s Isle, stated thus:
“I tyad of telling Dangriga people to stop buy boledo… If they want to win, they mus come and bet on me.”
Swaso seemingly coined but didn’t copyright the phrase, which implies that all can win if they bet on him. PUP latched on to this phrase in 2020 and the rest is history. Given Dr. Zabaneh’s 58% approval ratings, expect the winning to continue in Dangriga. Given the ongoing schism in the Opposition, expect the winnings for the incumbent PUP to continue countrywide.
Send comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com
コメント